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The precession of the equinoxes refers to the precession of Earth's axis of rotation with respect to inertial space. It was discovered by Hipparchus that the positions of the equinoxes move westward along the ecliptic compared to the fixed stars on the celestial sphere. Currently, this annual motion is about 50.3 seconds of arc per year or 1 degree every 71.6 years. The process is slow but cumulative. A complete precession cycle covers a period of approximately 25,700 years, (the so called great Platonic year), during which time the equinox regresses over a full 360°. Precessional movement is also the determining factor in the length of an Astrological Age.
Changing pole stars A consequence of the precession is a changing pole star. Currently Polaris is extremely well-suited to mark the position of the north celestial pole, as Polaris is moderately bright star (visual magnitude is 2.1 (variable)), and it is located within a half degree of the pole. On the other hand, Thuban in the constellation Draco, which was the pole star in 3000 BC is much less conspicious at magnitude 3.67 (one-fifth as bright as Polaris); today it is all but invisible in light-polluted urban skies. The brilliant Vega in the constellation Lyra is often touted as the best north star (when it fulfilled that role around 12000 BC and will do so again around the year AD 14000), however, it never comes closer than 5° to the pole. When Polaris becomes the north star again around 27800 AD, due to its proper motion it will be farther away from the pole then than it is now, while in 23600 BC it came closer to the pole. It is more difficult to find the south celestial pole in the sky at this moment, as that area is a particularly bland portion of the sky, and the nominal south pole star is Sigma Octantis, which with magnitude 5.5 is barely visible to the naked eye even under ideal conditions. However that will change from the eightieth to the nintieth centuries, when the south celestial pole travels through the False Cross. It is also seen from a starmap that the south pole, which has been nicely pointed to by the Southern cross for the last 2,000 years or so, is moving towards that constellation. By consequence it is now no longer visible from subtropical northern latitudes, as it was in the time of the ancient Greeks. Still pictures like these, found in many astronomy books, are only first approximations as they do not take into account the variable speed of the precession, the variable obliquity of the ecliptic, the planetary precession (which makes not the ecliptic pole the centre, but a circle about 6° away from it) and the proper motions of the stars. Polar shift and equinoxes shift It might not be directly clear to the non-astronomer what the shift of the equinoxes has to do with the precession of the rotation axis of the Earth. The figures to the right try to explain that. The rotation axis of the Earth describes, over a period of 25,700 years, a small circle (blue) among the stars, centred around the ecliptic northpole (the blue E) and with an angular radius of about 23.4°, an angle known as the obliquity of the ecliptic. The orange axis was the Earth's rotation axis 5,000 years ago, when it pointed to the star Thuban. The yellow axis, pointing to Polaris, is the situation now. When the celestial sphere is seen from the outside (as it is in the first drawing, although such a perspective is impossible), the constellations appear in mirror image. Furthermore, the daily rotation of the Earth around its axis is opposite to the precessional rotation. When the polar axis precesses from one direction to another, the equatorial plane of the Earth (indicated by the circular grid around the equator) and the associated celestial equator moves too. Where the celestial equator intersects the ecliptic (red line) there are the equinoxes. As seen from the orange grid, 5,000 years ago, the vernal equinox was close to the star Aldebaran of Taurus. Now, as seen from the yellow grid, it has shifted (indicated by the red arrow) to somewhere in the constellation of Pisces. This is why the equinoctal shift is a consequence of the precession of the rotation axis of the Earth, as well as vice versa. The second drawing shows the perspective of a near-Earth position as seen through a very wide angle lens (from which the apparent distortion). Explanation
Climatic effects The figure to the right illustrates the effects of axial precession on the northern hemisphere seasons, relative to perihelion and aphelion. The precession of the equinoxes contributes to periodic climate change, and is known as the Milankovitch cycle. Notice in the above figure that the areas swept during a specific season changes through time. Orbital mechanics require that the length of the seasons be proportional to the swept areas of the seasonal quadrants, so when the orbital eccentricity is extreme, the seasons on the far side of the orbit can be substantially longer in duration. Today, in the northern hemisphere, when fall and winter occur at closest approach, the earth is moving at its maximum velocity and therefore fall and winter are slightly shorter than spring and summer. Today, northern hemisphere summer is 4.66 days longer than its associated winter and spring is 2.9 days longer than fall (source). Axial precession slowly changes the place in the Earth's orbit where the solstices and equinoxes occur. See tropical year for a more extensive treatment and numerical values. Over the next 10,000 years, northern hemisphere winters will become gradually longer and northern hemisphere summers will become shorter, eventually creating conditions believed to be favorable for triggering the next ice age. History Hipparchus estimated the Earth's precession in around 130 BC, adding his own observations to those of Babylonian astronomers in the preceding centuries. In particular, they measured the distance of stars like Spica to the Moon and the Sun during lunar eclipses, and because he could compute the distance of the Moon and the Sun from the equinox at these moments, he noticed that Spica and other stars appeared to have moved over the centuries. Precession causes the cycle of seasons (tropical year) to be about 20.4 minutes less than the time for the Earth to return to the same position with respect to the stars. This results in a slow change (one day every 71 calendar years) in the position of the Sun with respect to the stars at an equinox. Values Simon Newcomb's calculation at the end of the nineteenth century for general precession (known as p) in longitude gave a value of 5,025.64 arcseconds per tropical century, and was the generally accepted value until artificial satellites delivered more accurate observations and electronic computers allowed more elaborate models to be calculated. Lieske developed an updated theory in 1976, where p equals 5,029.0966 arcseconds per Julian century, which with some amendments became the officially approved theory by the International Astronomical Union in 2000: p = 5,028.79695 + 1.11113T − (6 × 10-6)T² in arcseconds per Julian century, with T, the time in Julian centuries (that is, 36,525 days) since the epoch of 2000. The constant term of this speed corresponds to one full precession circle in 25,772 years. The precession is not a constant but slowly increasing over time because of the linear term in T. Still, this increase is diminishing due to the quadratic term. In any case it must be stressed that this formula is only valid over a limited time period. It is clear that if T gets large enough (far in the future or far in the past), the T² term will dominate and p will go to very large negative values. In reality, more elaborate calculations on the numerical model of solar system show that the precessional constants have a period of about 41,000 years, the same as the obliquity of the ecliptic. Note that the constants mentioned here are the linear and all higher terms of the formula above, not the precession itself. That is, p = A + BT + CT² + … is an approximation of p = A + Bsin (2πT/P), where P is the 410-century period. Other theoretical models may calculate values for p that have higher powers of T, but since no (finite) polynomial can ever represent a periodic function, they all go to either positive or negative infinity for large enough T. In that respect, the International Astronomical Union chose the simplest equation which agrees with most models. For up to 2,000 years in the past and the future, all formulas agree. For up to 4,000 years in the past and the future, most agree to some accuracy. For eras farther out, discrepanies become too large. The precession of Earth's axis is a very slow effect, but at the level of accuracy at which astronomers work, it does need to be taken into account on a daily basis. Note that although the precession and the tilt of Earth's axis (the obliquity of the ecliptic) are calculated from the same theory and thus are related to each other, the two movements act independently of each other, moving in mutually perpendicular directions. Over longer time periods, that is millions of years, it appears that precession is quasiperiodic at around 25,700 years. However, it will not remain so. According to Ward, when the distance of the Moon, which is continuously increasing from tidal effects, will have gone from the current 60.3 to approximately 66.5 Earth radii in about 1,500 million years, resonances from planetary effects will push precession to 49,000 years at first and then, when the Moon reaches 68 Earth radii in about 2,000 million years, to 69,000 years. This will be associated by wild swings in the obliquity of the ecliptic as well. However, Ward used the abnormally large modern value for tidal dissipation. Using the 620-million year average provided by tidal rhythmites of about half the modern value, these resonances will not be reached until about 3,000 and 4,000 million years, respectively. However, long before that time (about 2,100 million years from now), due to the increasing luminosity of the Sun, the oceans of the Earth will have boiled away, which will alter tidal effects significantly (see Earth's future). | ||||||||||
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